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March 2022

Putin and gas

24 February 2022 will go down in the history books, as the day Russia surprised the international community by invading Ukraine, using means that were more typical of the previous century. The generally stable period of peace between the superpowers was based on the theory of mutual economic relations. At the time of the invasion, it was thought that global integration on the financial markets and in the supply chains of the real economy would essentially preclude any military action. Now we are faced with war as a means to an end, rather than peace as the basis for prosperity. The theory above formed the basis for economic development in war-ravaged Europe following World War II and was ultimately also the fundamental concept of the European Union itself. Does it hold valid? Is it outdated? Were we naive? Let’s take a look at a specific example: natural gas. What would happen if Russian gas were not available? In other words: How easy is it to blackmail us?

Stefan Grünwald

Fund Manager